Where did the snow go?
Snow accumulation is a fundamental water source for snow-dominated regions. These regions are facing either lack of snow accumulation or early snowmelt due to climate change. We will determine how climate change may impact snow in the North Saskatchewan River Basin and analyze how it may impact downstream water behaviour. The study area is divided into 3 regions: mountain, hill foot and plain. Climate data was collected from US National Center for Atmospheric Research with outliers removed. We will use various types of multivariate statistical analysis methods including factor analysis, cluster analysis and permutational multivariate analysis of variance. By doing so, we can determine which area is impacted the most and which variables are the major driving factors.
|
The result shows that the mountain and hill foot region is experiencing more change than that of plain. The maximum factor analysis change magnitude is 1.51, which locates at the mountain region (upstream) of entire watershed. Average precipitation has decreased for around 4% for entire watershed, so does evapotranspriration. Soil water content has increased for around 11%, and soil curve number has increased for around 2%, indicating a less permeable soil situation. Max, average and min temperature are all showing increasing trend. Average temperature showed 13% increase and minimum temperature showed 12% increase. Average snow has decreased by 43%. Overall, the climate is experiencing a drastic change during a 22-year period.
|